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GOOD AFTERNOON
 SEPTEMBER 01, 2015


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Co-Ag Farm

8/21/15

 Well it’s about time to put harvest 2015 in the books, one to remember for all the wrong reasons. But there was a crop and with a crop there is marketing to be done. Even though the PNW has had a rough year, with yields down 30% and the extreme heat taking its toll on the quality, the worldwide wheat picture still is painted as a strong year with wheat production. This is pressuring the futures markets down and Chicago seems to be content trading between $4.50 and $5.50, even if there was a futures rally we would not see much of a rally on the cash side as Portland will keep basis in check to remain competitive in the export markets. Export numbers continue lag behind projections and will need to make some big gains to get back on track to help get a stronger bump on the futures side of the market. But the story remains the same as we fight a very strong dollar and large surplus of cheap wheat out of the Black sea/Europe regions. As of right now it looks like if we are to see prices rally a bit it will be on the cash side from Portland. With the strong El Nino becoming an issue with the Australian crop this open the door for PNW exporters to get some of their SWW business, thus the strengthening of the PNW basis. But if this situation was to come to fruition, it would be DEC-MAR time frame as that’s harvest down under. To capitalize on this I would look to lock in a HTA contract on any futures rally between now and November, my interest would be futures price $5.40+.  This plan does take some time, and cash flow is delayed, but bills need to be paid so what about near term. There just isn’t any news in the wheat market to be really positive about, we are trending lower with the occasional rally here and there. When this happens the wheat market becomes more of a follower of the corn market, and with record numbers being thrown around that does not help our cause. As of right now for cash flow I am looking to sell what I have to, $5.90+.  I am just struggling with thinking that even if we get a substantial rally from Chicago that Portland would be willing be the basis strength were its at considering how far we are out of the world export market. Now this could all change at a flip of hat, but from the picture being painted in from of me, there’s not a lot of sunshine.

On a side note, with next year’s prices being projected the same or worse I would strongly recommend looking to lock in some HTA contracts on any large futures rally to hope fully take some of risk of the table.
 
P.S. Something to keep an eye on, with the stock market taking a few big hits the past couple days, word on the street is equities are starting to buy up cheap commodities which could give us a quick Chicago rally, we will have to see if this materialize.

Cash price targets-$5.90-$6.50
2015 Chicago Futures Target-$5.40+
2016 Chicago Futures Targat-$5.70+


UPDATE 7/1/2015
With the rally continuing yesterday I went ahead with another cash trade of 10,000BU @ 6.85. I also initated a HTA contract for 10,000BU, I locked in the futures @ 6.14 and with a basis of +.65 I am bullish the basis at least .30 by harvest. Full report and market thoughts sent for tommorow. You can see the detailed marketed breakdown on the Co-Ag Farm JV link on the left.

Update 6/29/2015
Withh the rally we had last week and this morning, I have went ahead and priced some NC bushels for August delivery. I made a trade on 6/25/2015 for 5,000BU @ 6.55 and then I pulled the trigger for 20,000BU @ 6.73. This puts me at 30% sold for 2015 crop with a average price at 6.795. With .40 over my break even I feel very confident with the past 2 trades and how the future outlook is heading. I will have a more detailed report later this week after the USDA releases there weekly numbers.


Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  483'6 @W5U Chart
 October  486'0 @W5Z Chart
 November  486'0 @W5Z Chart
 December  491'2 @W6H Chart
 January  491'2 @W6H Chart
 February  491'2 @W6H Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  458'4 @KW5U Chart
 October  483'0 @KW5Z Chart
 January  496'6 @KW6H Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  492'0s @MW5U Chart
 October  511'4 @MW5Z Chart
 January  526'6 @MW6H Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  NONE Chart
 October  NONE Chart
 November  NONE Chart
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  NONE Chart

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 September  NONE Chart

Price as of 09/02/15 03:29AM CDT.
Month Symbols
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FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$-.00969 per bu   $.-30 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+5, -15c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+3c, -5c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only).  Extra freight @ Chewelah $8/tn, K Falls $10/tn


Canola price is FOB Co-Ag elevator.

 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
@C5U 357'0 1'0
@S5U 888'4 3'6
@W5U 483'6 -0'2
@O5U 233'0 -11'4
Stocks
MSFT 41.8200 -1.7000
WMT 63.820000 -0.910000
XOM 72.080000 -3.160000
TWX 69.440000 -1.660000



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Our Market Comments
Chicago wheat is up 4 this morning.  Wheat bulls are talking about the dry conditions across a large portion of southern Russia and parts of Ukraine, while the bears are talking about a truce between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists. Technicians continue to point towards an extremely weak formation of lower highs and lower lows.

Pea & Lentil bids :   All prices are now basis 2015 crop.  New crop offers are being accepted and encouraged

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 483'6 485'6 483'6 483'6 -0'2 484'0 03:18A Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 485'6 490'0 485'2 486'0 -0'2 486'2 03:19A Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 491'0 493'4 491'0 491'2 0'2 491'0 03:19A Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
May 16 497'4 497'4 495'4 495'4 0'4 495'0 03:18A Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 498'4 500'0 498'4 498'6 0'6 498'0 03:18A Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 506'4 0'0 506'6 03:18A Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 519'2 519'2 518'6 518'6 0'0 518'6 03:18A Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 533'0 533'0 533'0 533'0 -1'2 528'0s 03:18A Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 540'0 -1'2 531'2s 09/01 Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 537'0 -1'2 523'6s 02:09A Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 517'0 -1'2 517'0s 09/01 Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 535'0 -4'0 535'0s 09/01 Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 535'0 -4'0 535'0s 09/01 Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 535'0 -4'0 535'0s 09/01 Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 535'0 -4'0 535'0s 09/01 Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 458'4 458'4 458'4 458'4 0'0 458'4 03:18A Chart for @KW5U Options for @KW5U
Dec 15 481'6 485'0 481'2 483'0 0'6 482'2 03:18A Chart for @KW5Z Options for @KW5Z
Mar 16 495'6 497'6 495'6 496'6 1'0 495'6 03:15A Chart for @KW6H Options for @KW6H
May 16 505'4 505'4 505'4 505'4 0'0 505'4 03:18A Chart for @KW6K Options for @KW6K
Jul 16 513'4 516'2 513'4 514'0 -0'4 514'4 03:18A Chart for @KW6N Options for @KW6N
Sep 16 531'0 531'0 531'0 531'0 2'0 529'0 03:18A Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 549'0 549'0 549'0 549'0 2'0 547'0 03:18A Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 494'0 498'2 494'0 498'2 -4'4 492'0s 03:18A Chart for @MW5U Options for @MW5U
Dec 15 510'2 513'0 510'0 511'4 0'2 511'2 03:18A Chart for @MW5Z Options for @MW5Z
Mar 16 526'0 527'0 526'0 526'6 0'0 526'6 03:18A Chart for @MW6H Options for @MW6H
May 16 537'2 537'2 537'2 537'2 0'4 536'6 03:18A Chart for @MW6K Options for @MW6K
Jul 16 550'2 553'4 547'2 547'2 -3'2 548'0s 03:18A Chart for @MW6N Options for @MW6N
Sep 16 560'4 560'4 560'4 560'4 -4'0 557'0s 03:17A Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 575'6 575'6 575'6 575'6 -4'0 571'6s 03:18A Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 356'6 358'0 355'4 357'0 1'0 356'0 03:18A Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 369'0 371'4 368'0 369'6 0'6 369'0 03:18A Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 380'0 382'2 379'0 380'4 0'2 380'2 03:18A Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
May 16 387'0 388'4 385'6 387'4 0'4 387'0 03:18A Chart for @C6K Options for @C6K
Jul 16 391'4 393'0 390'0 391'6 0'2 391'4 03:18A Chart for @C6N Options for @C6N
Sep 16 386'0 386'4 383'6 386'2 0'2 386'0 03:18A Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 393'2 395'0 391'6 394'0 0'6 393'2 03:18A Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 882'4 888'4 882'4 888'4 3'6 884'6 03:17A Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 874'0 880'0 872'2 878'0 4'0 874'0 03:18A Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
Jan 16 878'6 884'4 876'6 882'4 3'6 878'6 03:18A Chart for @S6F Options for @S6F
Mar 16 881'0 886'4 879'2 884'2 3'2 881'0 03:18A Chart for @S6H Options for @S6H
May 16 885'0 889'6 883'0 888'0 4'0 884'0 03:18A Chart for @S6K Options for @S6K
Jul 16 889'2 892'2 887'0 891'6 4'2 887'4 03:18A Chart for @S6N Options for @S6N
Aug 16 888'0 891'0 887'6 891'0 4'0 887'0 03:18A Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Oct 15 142.825 142.825 140.600 141.000 - 1.875 141.325s 09/01 Chart for @LE5V Options for @LE5V
Dec 15 144.975 145.000 143.025 143.300 - 1.800 143.625s 09/01 Chart for @LE5Z Options for @LE5Z
Feb 16 144.625 144.750 142.825 142.875 - 1.850 143.300s 09/01 Chart for @LE6G Options for @LE6G
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 95.455 95.790 95.450 95.545 0.099 95.446 03:19A Chart for @DX5U Options for @DX5U
Dec 15 95.740 96.060 95.740 95.850 0.121 95.729 03:19A Chart for @DX5Z Options for @DX5Z
Mar 16 96.200 96.200 96.000 96.000 0.028 95.972 03:19A Chart for @DX6H Options for @DX6H
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

DTN Ag Headline News
Cash Rent Reset - 3
State of the Industry
Dr. Dan Talks Agronomy
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DTN Fertilizer Outlook
Cash Rent Reset - 1
Dr. Dan Talks Agronomy
WOTUS Conflict Hits Boiling Point

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Obama: Doomsday Scenario in Alaska 09/01 06:29
Clinton Stressed Protecting State Dept.09/01 06:36
Cease-Fire Holding in Ukraine 09/01 06:25
Thai PM: Bombing Suspect Arrested 09/01 06:32
Iranian Guard Chief: US 'Great Satan' 09/01 06:35
Hungary Shuts Down Migrant Rail Traffic09/01 06:28
Afghan Pres Calls for War on Corruption09/01 06:31
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Rosalia, WA
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