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GOOD MORNING
 Friday, July 31 2015






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Co-Ag Farm

7/17/15

Harvest is coming down the pipeline, cash prices are low, setting up for a below average crop in yield and quality, what is a guy to do? Well first thing is get the grain out of the fields and into the elevator or bins safely, because right now there’s nothing we can do about yields or quality. The market knows its harvest, and the world is flush with wheat so I don’t see a big rally anytime soon, especially with the U.S. export numbers struggling to even keep up with trade estimates.  We continue to be $30-$35 out of the world market, and the cash market will have to correct itself to make it competitive.  I have had many producers point to the PNW crop and the news out of the Midwest and ask why our issues are not being reflected in the market.  They are right, we are having production issues here and out east, but this time of the year exporters and importers are looking at the worldwide production, and with the US only being 7% of the world’s production and PNW only being 7% of that number it has not put a lot of scare into the market.  But we are the largest SWW producing area in the world, and with the weather issues that Australia is having we could see a good strong basis later in the year as importers come looking.  That all hinges on if we can get the US export market back in the ball park of being competitive again. So to be a broken record, I am going to suggest being patient, take risk of the table when prices are break-even or profitable, and don’t be hesitant to call Derek or I to ask questions, this is setting up for a tight year and chances of missing the boat are much higher than the past few years.  Another market to keep a closer eye this year is the corn, the rally we saw 2 weeks ago was mostly driven by the corn rally and we all know corn is king.

Cash price targets-$6.50-$6.80
Chicago Futures Target-$5.70-$6.00



UPDATE 7/1/2015
With the rally continuing yesterday I went ahead with another cash trade of 10,000BU @ 6.85. I also initated a HTA contract for 10,000BU, I locked in the futures @ 6.14 and with a basis of +.65 I am bullish the basis at least .30 by harvest. Full report and market thoughts sent for tommorow. You can see the detailed marketed breakdown on the Co-Ag Farm JV link on the left.

Update 6/29/2015
Withh the rally we had last week and this morning, I have went ahead and priced some NC bushels for August delivery. I made a trade on 6/25/2015 for 5,000BU @ 6.55 and then I pulled the trigger for 20,000BU @ 6.73. This puts me at 30% sold for 2015 crop with a average price at 6.795. With .40 over my break even I feel very confident with the past 2 trades and how the future outlook is heading. I will have a more detailed report later this week after the USDA releases there weekly numbers.


Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  498'0 @W5U Chart
 August  498'0 @W5U Chart
 September  498'0 @W5U Chart
 October  503'6 @W5Z Chart
 January  509'4 @W6H Chart
 February  509'4 @W6H Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  491'6 @KW5U Chart
 August  491'6 @KW5U Chart
 January  525'0 @KW6H Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  525'4 @MW5U Chart
 August  525'4 @MW5U Chart
 September  543'0 @MW5Z Chart
 January  560'0 @MW6H Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart
 August  NONE Chart
 September  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

CANOLA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart
 September  NONE Chart

Price as of 07/31/15 12:23PM CDT.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$-.01144 per bu   $.-56 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+15, -25c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+0c, -4c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only).  Extra freight @ Chewelah $8/tn, K Falls $10/tn


Canola price is FOB Co-Ag elevator.

 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
@C5U 371'2 -2'0
@S5Q 980'0 -10'2
@W5U 498'0 1'4
@O5U 238'0 3'0
Stocks
MSFT 46.6900 -0.1900
WMT 72.030000 -0.130000
XOM 79.910000 -3.100000
TWX 88.520000 0.080000



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Our Market Comments
Chicago futures are currently up 6.  Wheat bears are saying, "I told you so" in regard to the recent US Wheat Quality Council Spring Wheat Tour. The tour ended with a HRS wheat average yield potential of just under 50 bushels per acre (49.9 to be exact), which is much better than the 5-year average of around 45 bushels per acre and sets the highest level seen since the tour started keeping track in 1992.

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 496'6 503'4 495'6 498'0 1'4 496'4 12:13P Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 504'2 510'0 502'6 503'6 -0'4 504'2 12:13P Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 511'0 516'2 508'6 509'4 -1'6 511'2 12:12P Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
May 16 518'0 519'0 513'0 513'4 -4'2 515'4 12:12P Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 518'6 523'6 515'0 515'0 -3'6 518'6 12:13P Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 526'4 531'0 524'0 524'2 -4'0 528'2 12:12P Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 542'6 544'0 536'4 536'4 -2'2 538'6 12:11P Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 550'2 550'6 550'2 550'6 5'0 545'6 12:12P Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 605'0 -3'4 546'2s 11:49A Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 537'0 537'0 537'0 537'0 -3'4 532'2s 12:10P Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 525'4 -3'4 525'4s 07/30 Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 542'2 -3'4 542'2s 08:30A Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 542'2 -3'4 542'2s 07/30 Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 542'2 -3'4 542'2s 07/30 Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 542'2 -3'4 542'2s 07/30 Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 491'0 497'6 490'0 491'6 0'6 491'0 12:12P Chart for @KW5U Options for @KW5U
Dec 15 510'6 517'4 510'0 511'4 0'6 510'6 12:12P Chart for @KW5Z Options for @KW5Z
Mar 16 525'0 530'6 524'2 525'0 0'0 525'0 12:12P Chart for @KW6H Options for @KW6H
May 16 534'4 537'6 534'4 534'4 -0'2 534'6 12:12P Chart for @KW6K Options for @KW6K
Jul 16 544'0 547'6 542'6 542'6 -0'6 543'4 12:12P Chart for @KW6N Options for @KW6N
Sep 16 556'0 563'2 556'0 558'0 2'0 556'0 12:12P Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 570'4 0'0 571'0 12:12P Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 526'6 531'4 524'6 525'4 -1'2 526'6 12:11P Chart for @MW5U Options for @MW5U
Dec 15 544'0 549'0 542'2 543'0 -0'6 543'6 12:11P Chart for @MW5Z Options for @MW5Z
Mar 16 560'2 564'6 560'0 560'0 -0'4 560'4 12:11P Chart for @MW6H Options for @MW6H
May 16 574'6 574'6 574'6 574'6 3'0 571'6 12:11P Chart for @MW6K Options for @MW6K
Jul 16 581'6 584'6 581'0 581'0 -0'6 581'6 12:11P Chart for @MW6N Options for @MW6N
Sep 16 588'0 589'2 588'0 588'0 1'2 586'6 12:11P Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 596'0 597'0 Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 374'6 377'4 369'2 371'4 -1'6 373'2 12:12P Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 385'0 387'6 379'2 381'4 -2'2 383'6 12:11P Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 396'0 398'4 390'2 392'2 -2'4 394'6 12:11P Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
May 16 402'2 404'6 396'4 398'4 -2'4 401'0 12:12P Chart for @C6K Options for @C6K
Jul 16 407'2 410'2 401'4 403'4 -2'6 406'2 12:11P Chart for @C6N Options for @C6N
Sep 16 398'0 398'6 391'6 392'6 -4'2 397'0 12:12P Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 398'0 400'0 393'6 395'4 -2'2 397'6 12:12P Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 993'0 995'2 980'0 980'0 -10'2 990'2 12:12P Chart for @S5Q Options for @S5Q
Sep 15 965'2 966'4 952'6 953'2 -11'2 964'4 12:12P Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 951'6 952'4 938'0 939'6 -10'2 950'0 12:13P Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
Jan 16 957'0 957'4 943'2 945'0 -10'2 955'2 12:13P Chart for @S6F Options for @S6F
Mar 16 954'0 954'6 941'0 942'6 -10'4 953'2 12:12P Chart for @S6H Options for @S6H
May 16 949'6 951'0 937'2 939'2 -10'4 949'6 12:12P Chart for @S6K Options for @S6K
Jul 16 952'6 953'0 940'6 942'4 -10'2 952'6 12:12P Chart for @S6N Options for @S6N
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 145.550 146.525 145.450 145.825 0.600 145.225 12:12P Chart for @LE5Q Options for @LE5Q
Oct 15 146.650 147.375 145.775 146.175 - 0.275 146.450 12:12P Chart for @LE5V Options for @LE5V
Dec 15 148.325 148.950 147.375 147.725 - 0.400 148.125 12:12P Chart for @LE5Z Options for @LE5Z
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 97.555 97.725 96.375 97.150 -0.544 97.694 12:13P Chart for @DX5U Options for @DX5U
Dec 15 97.790 98.010 96.720 97.495 -0.504 97.999 12:11P Chart for @DX5Z Options for @DX5Z
Mar 16 98.000 98.000 97.000 97.800 -0.484 98.284 12:12P Chart for @DX6H Options for @DX6H
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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Rosalia, WA
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