Mission Statement "To grow profitablility, retire shareholder equity, and provide sound employment opportunities while striving to keep the local communities strong."
Falling numbers has become a serious concern to all in the Ag Community this year. Unfortunately, COAG will not be able to have a "POOL" for low falling numbers. This issue is widespread across our whole region and beyond. Due to the wide proximity and the lack of segregation "at the pit," we can only encourage the producer to ask for a regrade if they find themselves in this situation. COAG will allow ONE regrade within 30 days of the date on the original grade cert. If a regrade is requested, the second grade WILL replace the original.
10/22/2015 Well it’s been over a month since my last report, but it could have been yesterday with how much the market has moved since then. We continue to be stuck in a range of $5.50 and $5.80 cash, with DEC15 futures struggling to get over the $5.30 mark and dropping all the way down to $4.80. From a fundamental stand point even though it has been a rough start to the 2016 crop year here in the PNW the Midwest and the Black Sea region have gotten good and timely rains. It seems the cold has come to Russia sooner than hoped and there estimating that a third of the winter wheat crop is very susceptible to winterkill and made the need for good spring rains even more important. But with the large glut of wheat stocks on hand in the world the trade does not seem to concerned with these weather events yet, it will probably take till spring time till the market takes any weather seriously. US exports also continue to be dreadfully low and slow, even though we are getting more competitive in the world market we are struggling to keep up with our projections. Now taking the focus of the world wheat picture and looking harder at the SWW market, Australia has about month till the first combines will start up and get there SWW harvest under way. They have taken the brunt of the very strong El Nino heading our way and there is an overall consensus “besides the USDA” that there will be a considerable drop in production and average estimates are at 21-24MMT. What I am looking for is anything at 20 or below, if this mark is reached it should give a nice little bounce in the PNW SWW market, not a dollar or two improvement but significant. With this all being said, and with the technical side being short once again and in need some sort of rally, for nearby pricing I would not be shocked to see some movement right before the Australian harvest. This is the time when I would be looking at letting some grain go, either in the nearby month or further out. The market is to placid right now, there is no news to push it really one way or another, and as long as the corn boys can keep their act together and not drive this thing into the ground there should be a couple selling opportunities. PSA Announcement I know we still are battling with marketing the 2015 crop but please keep an eye out on both cash and HTA opportunities for NC 2106. With how this fall planting has been going and with El Nino still scheduled to hit this area and make things 55% drier than normal taking risk off the table at profitable levels is essential. New Crop cash has been between $5.90 and $6.15 August DLVD for the past few weeks, and if we see a futures rally take advantage and lock that price in only if its 5,000BU. Yes, I know that things could change and that might be a terrible trade next year, but given the landscape at the current moment that $6.15 trade could be the best one to.
Futures closed down 3. Wheat bulls continue to talk about poor global quality and the thoughts of U.S. wheat starting to fall more into favor amongst some of the larger importers. There's also talk amongst the bulls that prices in Russia are starting to firm a bit, while exports out of Germany and France have completely dried up. On the flip side the bears are talking about another strong Canadian wheat crop estimate. StatsCan showed the Canadian crop at 30.5 million metric tons vs. the current USDA estimate of 30 MMTs.
Pea & Lentil bids : All prices are now basis 2015 crop. New crop offers are being accepted and encouraged.