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GOOD AFTERNOON
JUNE 27, 2016 


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Co-Ag Farm

10/22/2015
Well it’s been over a month since my last report, but it could have been yesterday with how much the market has moved since then. We continue to be stuck in a range of $5.50 and $5.80 cash, with DEC15 futures struggling to get over the $5.30 mark and dropping all the way down to $4.80. From a fundamental stand point even though it has been a rough start to the 2016 crop year here in the PNW the Midwest and the Black Sea region have gotten good and timely rains. It seems the cold has come to Russia sooner than hoped and there estimating that a third of the winter wheat crop is very susceptible to winterkill and made the need for good spring rains even more important. But with the large glut of wheat stocks on hand in the world the trade does not seem to concerned with these weather events yet, it will probably take till spring time till the market takes any weather seriously. US exports also continue to be dreadfully low and slow, even though we are getting more competitive in the world market we are struggling to keep up with our projections. Now taking the focus of the world wheat picture and looking harder at the SWW market, Australia has about month till the first combines will start up and get there SWW harvest under way. They have taken the brunt of the very strong El Nino heading our way and there is an overall consensus “besides the USDA” that there will be a considerable drop in production and average estimates are at 21-24MMT. What I am looking for is anything at 20 or below, if this mark is reached it should give a nice little bounce in the PNW SWW market, not a dollar or two improvement but significant. With this all being said, and with the technical side being short once again and in need some sort of rally, for nearby pricing I would not be shocked to see some movement right before the Australian harvest. This is the time when I would be looking at letting some grain go, either in the nearby month or further out. The market is to placid right now, there is no news to push it really one way or another, and as long as the corn boys can keep their act  together and not drive this thing into the ground there should be a couple selling opportunities.
PSA Announcement
I know we still are battling with marketing the 2015 crop but please keep an eye out on both cash and HTA opportunities for NC 2106. With how this fall planting has been going and with El Nino still scheduled to hit this area and make things 55% drier than normal taking risk off the table at profitable levels is essential. New Crop cash has been between $5.90 and $6.15 August DLVD for the past few weeks, and if we see a futures rally take advantage and lock that price in only if its 5,000BU. Yes, I know that things could change and that might be a terrible trade next year, but given the landscape at the current moment that $6.15 trade could be the best one to.

Price Points Futures
MAR2016-$5.48+
Harvest-May2016-$5.80+

Nearby Cash
$5.80

 
Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more and see how I am doing.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  453'2 @W6N Chart
 July  466'0 @W6U Chart
 August  466'0 @W6U Chart
 September  466'0 @W6U Chart
 October  485'4 @W6Z Chart
 November  485'4 @W6Z Chart
 December  485'4 @W6Z Chart
 January  503'0 @W7H Chart
 February  503'0 @W7H Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  438'6 @KW6U Chart
 July  438'6 @KW6U Chart
 August  438'6 @KW6U Chart
 September  438'6 @KW6U Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  522'0 @MW6U Chart
 July  522'0 @MW6U Chart
 August  522'0 @MW6U Chart
 September  522'0 @MW6U Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  NONE Chart
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
There are currently no bids for GREEN PEAS at this location.

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 June  NONE Chart

Price as of 06/28/16 08:18AM CDT.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$0.0 per bu   $0.0 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+4, -8c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+3c, -6c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only). 




 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
@C6N 395'2 10'0
@S6N 1160'2 27'2
@W6N 453'2 6'4
@O6N 204'6 0'6
Stocks
MSFT 48.4300 -1.4000
WMT 71.500000 -0.460000
XOM 88.860000 -0.530000
TWX 69.210000 -1.510000



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Our Market Comments
Futures closed down 8.  Wheat traders continue to see very little fresh news in the headlines. The U.S. harvest continues to roll along with producers reporting larger than anticipated yields in many key locations. The "quality" of the crop, not just here at home, but in several global locations remain a concern, but the trade seems content on ignoring those headlines. The bears continue to talk about a glut of global supply and U.S. domestic surplus pushing to levels north of 1.0 billion bushels.

Pea & Lentil bids :   All prices are now basis 2015 crop.  New crop offers are being accepted and encouraged.

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 446'2 454'6 444'4 453'2 6'4 446'6 08:01A Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 458'0 467'4 456'2 466'0 7'6 458'2 08:06A Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 477'2 487'0 475'6 485'4 7'4 478'0 08:03A Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 494'0 504'6 493'6 503'0 7'4 495'4 07:53A Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 505'6 512'2 505'0 512'2 6'6 505'4 07:45A Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 513'0 519'6 510'6 519'4 6'6 512'6 07:45A Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 529'4 531'4 522'0 522'0 -8'4 521'0s 07:45A Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 541'4 541'4 541'4 541'4 5'6 535'6 07:44A Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 553'0 -8'4 548'4s 07:45A Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 550'0 -8'4 549'6s 07:45A Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 586'0 -8'4 550'0s 07:45A Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 412'6 421'2 412'0 420'0 7'2 412'6 08:06A Chart for @KW6N Options for @KW6N
Sep 16 431'0 440'2 430'4 438'6 7'4 431'2 07:45A Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 457'0 464'6 456'0 464'4 7'4 457'0 08:00A Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
Mar 17 474'4 481'2 473'0 480'0 6'4 473'4 07:45A Chart for @KW7H Options for @KW7H
May 17 498'2 498'2 484'2 484'2 -9'6 484'0s 07:45A Chart for @KW7K Options for @KW7K
Jul 17 493'0 501'2 493'0 500'6 7'2 493'4 07:45A Chart for @KW7N Options for @KW7N
Sep 17 506'0 506'0 506'0 506'0 -1'0 507'0 07:45A Chart for @KW7U Options for @KW7U
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 506'2 514'0 506'2 514'0 7'4 506'4 07:45A Chart for @MW6N Options for @MW6N
Sep 16 514'6 523'0 514'6 522'0 7'2 514'6 08:03A Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 531'2 538'4 530'0 538'4 8'2 530'2 07:45A Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
Mar 17 545'0 551'2 544'2 551'2 7'0 544'2 08:01A Chart for @MW7H Options for @MW7H
May 17 560'0 560'4 552'2 552'4 -10'2 552'2s 07:45A Chart for @MW7K Options for @MW7K
Jul 17 565'0 565'0 565'0 565'0 6'0 559'0 08:03A Chart for @MW7N Options for @MW7N
Sep 17 565'0 565'0 565'0 565'0 -11'0 564'6s 07:45A Chart for @MW7U Options for @MW7U
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 383'0 398'2 382'4 395'2 10'0 385'2 08:06A Chart for @C6N Options for @C6N
Sep 16 387'0 402'0 386'4 399'4 10'2 389'2 08:04A Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 391'6 406'6 391'0 403'6 9'4 394'2 08:05A Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 401'4 413'2 398'2 410'4 9'4 401'0 08:01A Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
May 17 403'0 416'4 402'2 414'0 9'0 405'0 07:45A Chart for @C7K Options for @C7K
Jul 17 407'0 419'6 405'2 417'0 8'4 408'4 08:00A Chart for @C7N Options for @C7N
Sep 17 393'2 403'0 393'2 400'0 6'2 393'6 08:06A Chart for @C7U Options for @C7U
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 16 1130'4 1165'4 1128'2 1160'2 27'2 1133'0 08:01A Chart for @S6N Options for @S6N
Aug 16 1127'2 1162'0 1124'4 1157'0 27'2 1129'6 08:06A Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
Sep 16 1113'0 1146'0 1109'0 1141'4 27'4 1114'0 08:02A Chart for @S6U Options for @S6U
Nov 16 1102'6 1136'6 1100'0 1132'6 28'0 1104'6 08:06A Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
Jan 17 1099'4 1132'0 1097'0 1129'6 28'2 1101'4 07:55A Chart for @S7F Options for @S7F
Mar 17 1062'4 1091'2 1059'2 1089'6 25'0 1064'6 07:57A Chart for @S7H Options for @S7H
May 17 1052'4 1078'4 1052'4 1076'2 23'0 1053'2 07:51A Chart for @S7K Options for @S7K
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 16 114.825 116.275 114.825 115.850 1.225 115.925s 07:58A Chart for @LE6M Options for @LE6M
Aug 16 111.125 112.725 110.925 111.900 1.150 112.025s 08:03A Chart for @LE6Q Options for @LE6Q
Oct 16 111.200 112.625 111.000 112.125 1.425 112.300s 07:48A Chart for @LE6V Options for @LE6V
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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