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GOOD MORNING  December 19, 2014




Congratulations to the 2015 Lentil Family of the year Gary and Salli Heaton
Click above for more details!






 

 
 

 
 



 



Co-Ag Farm

Recently there have been many questions about wether or not an HTA contract is feasible right now....so let's find out.
Starting today, I sold 1 (5000bu) September 2014 Chicago (ZWU14) futures contract at 6.14, cash today was at 6.85.  That gives me a starting basis point of +71.  Today's nearby basis is +1.18.  If the Septemeber basis runs to anything close to that number it will be great, and will add to what would have been a 6.85 cash sale.   However, if the basis goes the other way it will be taking away from what would have been a 6.85 cash sale, and if it goes negative it will really hurt!

I'll also do the same with a December 2014 Chicago contract (ZWZ14) sold at 6.29, cash at 6.95 with a +66 starting basis to see is the later months fare any better or turn out worse. 

*UPDATE*
Today I locked the basis on the DEC HTA contract at 1.53 positive basis, giving me a cash price of 7.82 far surpassing what I could have sold the cash for when I started the hedge.  So in this case, yes the HTA contract worked again, even while starting at a positive basis.  Would I do another today?  No.  Today's basis levels are much to high in my opinion with much more downside risk than upside potential. 


 I'll update weekly to track how this HTA contract is working out.

Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more.
 


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  6274s @W4Z Chart
 January  632'2s @W5H Chart
 February  632'2s @W5H Chart
 March  635'0s @W5K Chart
 April  635'0s @W5K Chart
 August  641'2s @W5U Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  666'0s @KW5H Chart
 January  666'0s @KW5H Chart
 February  666'0s @KW5H Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  648'2s @MW5H Chart
 January  648'2s @MW5H Chart
 February  648'2s @MW5H Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart
 March  NONE Chart
 August  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  NONE Chart

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  NONE Chart

CANOLA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart

Price as of 12/21/14 12:07AM CST.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$.034 per bu   $1.15 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+15, -25c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+0c, -4c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only).  Extra freight @ Chewelah $8/tn, K Falls $10/tn


Canola price is FOB Co-Ag elevator.

 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
C5H 410'6 -0'4
S5F 1032'0 -4'4
W5H 633'0 -23'0
O5H 307'6 -5'6
Stocks
MSFT 47.6600 0.1400
WMT 85.1600 -0.7800
XOM 93.640000 2.480000
TWX 84.9300 0.5500



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Our Market Comments
Wheat futures are currently down 18.  The trade is already digesting thoughts of Russian wheat exports being limited by perhaps 5.0 to 6.0 MMTs, and already digesting weather complications here in the US and Black Sea region. Point is it might be tough to keep adding enough fresh news to keep the bulls satisfied.

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 15 654'0 654'4 629'2 633'0 -23'0 632'2s 12/19 Chart for @W5H Options for @W5H
May 15 655'0 655'0 632'0 635'4 -21'6 635'0s 12/19 Chart for @W5K Options for @W5K
Jul 15 652'0 652'4 629'0 635'2 -19'6 634'2s 12/19 Chart for @W5N Options for @W5N
Sep 15 648'0 648'4 635'0 641'6 -19'4 641'2s 12/19 Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 668'0 668'0 643'4 652'2 -19'2 650'6s 12/19 Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 666'2 666'2 650'6 656'0 -19'4 656'0s 12/19 Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
May 16 663'4 -19'2 650'0s 12/19 Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 620'2 631'0 620'2 631'0 -15'6 623'0s 12/19 Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 630'0 -15'6 625'6s 12/19 Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 652'0 -16'4 636'0s 12/19 Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 647'0 -16'4 637'4s 12/19 Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 600'0 -16'4 629'4s 12/19 Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 619'0 -16'4 608'4s 12/19 Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 15 681'4 682'4 661'6 666'6 -17'6 666'0s 12/19 Chart for @KW5H Options for @KW5H
May 15 684'6 685'4 666'0 670'6 -17'2 670'2s 12/19 Chart for @KW5K Options for @KW5K
Jul 15 685'0 686'0 666'4 672'6 -16'2 672'0s 12/19 Chart for @KW5N Options for @KW5N
Sep 15 692'4 692'4 674'2 679'4 -15'2 680'0s 12/19 Chart for @KW5U Options for @KW5U
Dec 15 696'0 698'4 685'0 690'6 -15'0 690'6s 12/19 Chart for @KW5Z Options for @KW5Z
Mar 16 709'0 -14'6 696'0s 12/19 Chart for @KW6H Options for @KW6H
May 16 655'0 -14'6 682'0s 12/19 Chart for @KW6K Options for @KW6K
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 15 658'4 660'2 643'4 650'0 -12'6 648'2s 12/19 Chart for @MW5H Options for @MW5H
May 15 662'0 665'6 649'4 656'4 -13'0 654'0s 12/19 Chart for @MW5K Options for @MW5K
Jul 15 671'6 671'6 655'0 662'2 -12'4 660'6s 12/19 Chart for @MW5N Options for @MW5N
Sep 15 675'2 675'2 659'0 664'6 -12'4 664'2s 12/19 Chart for @MW5U Options for @MW5U
Dec 15 677'2 680'6 667'0 672'4 -13'2 672'4s 12/19 Chart for @MW5Z Options for @MW5Z
Mar 16 685'4 685'4 671'4 671'4 -11'0 678'6s 12/19 Chart for @MW6H Options for @MW6H
May 16 690'0 -3'6 678'6s 12/19 Chart for @MW6K Options for @MW6K
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 15 410'6 411'2 405'0 410'6 -0'4 410'4s 12/19 Chart for @C5H Options for @C5H
May 15 419'0 419'6 413'4 419'4 -0'4 419'0s 12/19 Chart for @C5K Options for @C5K
Jul 15 425'6 426'6 420'0 426'4 -0'2 426'0s 12/19 Chart for @C5N Options for @C5N
Sep 15 428'0 429'2 423'2 429'2 -0'2 428'2s 12/19 Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 434'0 435'4 429'0 435'2 0'2 435'0s 12/19 Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 442'0 444'0 437'6 444'0 0'4 443'4s 12/19 Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
May 16 448'0 448'0 445'6 447'4 0'4 449'2s 12/19 Chart for @C6K Options for @C6K
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 15 1034'6 1035'6 1022'4 1030'2 -4'4 1030'4s 12/19 Chart for @S5F Options for @S5F
Mar 15 1043'0 1044'0 1030'2 1038'2 -4'6 1038'4s 12/19 Chart for @S5H Options for @S5H
May 15 1050'0 1051'0 1037'6 1045'6 -4'2 1046'0s 12/19 Chart for @S5K Options for @S5K
Jul 15 1055'0 1056'2 1043'4 1052'2 -4'0 1052'0s 12/19 Chart for @S5N Options for @S5N
Aug 15 1049'6 1052'0 1044'4 1046'0 -3'0 1050'6s 12/19 Chart for @S5Q Options for @S5Q
Sep 15 1034'4 1034'4 1024'0 1024'0 -2'0 1032'4s 12/19 Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 1019'0 1022'0 1008'4 1017'6 -2'2 1017'4s 12/19 Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 159.050 161.500 159.000 161.250 2.050 160.750s 12/19 Chart for @LE4Z Options for @LE4Z
Feb 15 158.575 160.775 158.450 160.275 1.575 160.100s 12/19 Chart for @LE5G Options for @LE5G
Apr 15 158.200 160.050 158.075 159.650 1.475 159.675s 12/19 Chart for @LE5J Options for @LE5J
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 15 89.510 89.880 89.380 89.820 0.364 89.841s 12/19 Chart for @DX5H Options for @DX5H
Jun 15 89.785 90.135 89.715 90.105 0.377 90.124s 12/19 Chart for @DX5M Options for @DX5M
Sep 15 90.130 90.180 89.950 90.050 0.377 90.354s 12/19 Chart for @DX5U Options for @DX5U
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

DTN Ag Headline News
USDA Dropping Checkoff Plan
New World-Record Corn Yield
Amazon Deforestation and Ag-4
Global Fertilizer Outlook - 4
China Holds Grain Import Quotas Steady
Elections Won't Soften TPP Issues
The Market's Fine Print
Water-Quality Trading Touted
Senate Passes Tax Extenders

Headline News
Obama Takes Foreign Policy Risk 12/20 12:39
Congress Finally Finishes Session 12/20 12:48
Russia: US Sanctions are Useless 12/20 12:35
US Returns Afghans Home From Gitmo 12/20 12:44
12 Killed in Iraq Bombings 12/20 12:47
Pakistan Burying Massacre Victims 12/20 12:38
Air Force Admits to Nuke Flaws 12/20 12:43
US Stocks Inch Higher After 2-Day Rally12/19 16:05

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Rosalia, WA
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Rosalia, WA
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