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GOOD  MORNING
APRIL 29, 2016 










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Co-Ag Farm

10/22/2015
Well it’s been over a month since my last report, but it could have been yesterday with how much the market has moved since then. We continue to be stuck in a range of $5.50 and $5.80 cash, with DEC15 futures struggling to get over the $5.30 mark and dropping all the way down to $4.80. From a fundamental stand point even though it has been a rough start to the 2016 crop year here in the PNW the Midwest and the Black Sea region have gotten good and timely rains. It seems the cold has come to Russia sooner than hoped and there estimating that a third of the winter wheat crop is very susceptible to winterkill and made the need for good spring rains even more important. But with the large glut of wheat stocks on hand in the world the trade does not seem to concerned with these weather events yet, it will probably take till spring time till the market takes any weather seriously. US exports also continue to be dreadfully low and slow, even though we are getting more competitive in the world market we are struggling to keep up with our projections. Now taking the focus of the world wheat picture and looking harder at the SWW market, Australia has about month till the first combines will start up and get there SWW harvest under way. They have taken the brunt of the very strong El Nino heading our way and there is an overall consensus “besides the USDA” that there will be a considerable drop in production and average estimates are at 21-24MMT. What I am looking for is anything at 20 or below, if this mark is reached it should give a nice little bounce in the PNW SWW market, not a dollar or two improvement but significant. With this all being said, and with the technical side being short once again and in need some sort of rally, for nearby pricing I would not be shocked to see some movement right before the Australian harvest. This is the time when I would be looking at letting some grain go, either in the nearby month or further out. The market is to placid right now, there is no news to push it really one way or another, and as long as the corn boys can keep their act  together and not drive this thing into the ground there should be a couple selling opportunities.
PSA Announcement
I know we still are battling with marketing the 2015 crop but please keep an eye out on both cash and HTA opportunities for NC 2106. With how this fall planting has been going and with El Nino still scheduled to hit this area and make things 55% drier than normal taking risk off the table at profitable levels is essential. New Crop cash has been between $5.90 and $6.15 August DLVD for the past few weeks, and if we see a futures rally take advantage and lock that price in only if its 5,000BU. Yes, I know that things could change and that might be a terrible trade next year, but given the landscape at the current moment that $6.15 trade could be the best one to.

Price Points Futures
MAR2016-$5.48+
Harvest-May2016-$5.80+

Nearby Cash
$5.80

 
Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more and see how I am doing.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 May  478'0s @W6K Chart
 June  488'4s @W6N Chart
 July  498'2s @W6U Chart
 August  498'2s @W6U Chart
 September  516'0s @W6Z Chart
 December  533'0s @W7H Chart
 January  533'0s @W7H Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 May  465'2s @KW6K Chart
 June  478'4s @KW6N Chart
 August  494'2s @KW6U Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 May  540'0s @MW6K Chart
 June  547'0s @MW6N Chart
 August  555'0s @MW6U Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 May  NONE Chart
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart

Price as of 05/01/16 03:03AM CDT.
Month Symbols
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FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$0.0 per bu   $0.0 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+4, -8c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+3c, -6c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only). 




 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
@C6K 391'0 3'2
@S6K 1021'0 3'0
@W6K 479'0 2'4
@O6K 195'2 -0'6
Stocks
MSFT 49.8700 -0.0300
WMT 66.870000 -2.040000
XOM 88.400000 0.370000
TWX 75.140000 -1.610000



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Our Market Comments
Futures are currnetly down 1.  Wheat bulls are happy to see better U.S. export sales, but we have to remind ourself it doesn't take much to see sales better than the previous weeks. The bulls are also happy to see the latest data out of Ukraine confirming that their upcoming wheat crop could  8-12% lower than last year. On the flip side the bears are quick to point to Russia making up for the lost Ukraine or perhaps lost Romania production. 

Pea & Lentil bids :   All prices are now basis 2015 crop.  New crop offers are being accepted and encouraged.

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 16 472'2 480'4 470'4 479'0 2'4 478'0s 04/29 Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 483'6 490'6 480'6 488'2 3'0 488'4s 04/29 Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 494'4 501'0 491'4 497'6 3'0 498'2s 04/29 Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 512'4 519'2 510'0 515'6 3'6 516'0s 04/29 Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 529'4 536'2 527'4 532'6 4'2 533'0s 04/29 Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 539'0 544'4 538'2 541'2 4'6 543'2s 04/29 Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 542'0 547'2 542'0 545'0 4'2 546'2s 04/29 Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 547'0 4'0 553'6s 04/29 Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 567'0 567'0 567'0 567'0 3'2 565'6s 04/29 Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 574'0 3'2 577'2s 04/29 Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 579'6 3'2 579'6s 04/29 Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 538'0 3'2 562'6s 04/29 Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 16 461'0 465'4 456'0 464'6 4'2 465'2s 04/29 Chart for @KW6K Options for @KW6K
Jul 16 474'2 479'4 469'0 477'2 4'0 478'4s 04/29 Chart for @KW6N Options for @KW6N
Sep 16 490'2 495'4 485'4 493'0 4'0 494'2s 04/29 Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 514'0 519'4 509'6 518'0 4'2 518'2s 04/29 Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
Mar 17 529'0 532'2 524'6 529'0 4'6 533'0s 04/29 Chart for @KW7H Options for @KW7H
May 17 537'6 539'0 537'6 539'0 5'0 542'2s 04/29 Chart for @KW7K Options for @KW7K
Jul 17 545'6 547'0 540'0 540'4 5'0 547'2s 04/29 Chart for @KW7N Options for @KW7N
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 16 534'6 540'4 534'2 540'4 10'0 540'0s 04/29 Chart for @MW6K Options for @MW6K
Jul 16 541'6 548'0 540'0 546'6 4'6 547'0s 04/29 Chart for @MW6N Options for @MW6N
Sep 16 550'0 555'6 549'0 554'0 4'4 555'0s 04/29 Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 562'0 566'2 559'0 565'2 3'6 565'4s 04/29 Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
Mar 17 570'0 575'0 568'0 573'0 3'0 573'6s 04/29 Chart for @MW7H Options for @MW7H
May 17 576'0 576'0 576'0 576'0 2'2 578'6s 04/29 Chart for @MW7K Options for @MW7K
Jul 17 586'0 2'4 583'0s 04/29 Chart for @MW7N Options for @MW7N
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 16 387'0 392'0 385'0 391'0 3'2 390'2s 04/29 Chart for @C6K Options for @C6K
Jul 16 390'6 395'2 388'2 392'0 0'4 391'6s 04/29 Chart for @C6N Options for @C6N
Sep 16 390'0 393'6 387'2 391'6 1'2 391'6s 04/29 Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 393'4 397'2 390'6 395'0 0'6 395'2s 04/29 Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 401'2 405'0 399'2 402'4 -0'2 402'6s 04/29 Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
May 17 404'4 410'0 404'4 407'0 -0'4 407'4s 04/29 Chart for @C7K Options for @C7K
Jul 17 409'0 414'2 409'0 411'0 -1'2 411'4s 04/29 Chart for @C7N Options for @C7N
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 16 1015'2 1029'0 1009'0 1021'0 3'0 1021'0s 04/29 Chart for @S6K Options for @S6K
Jul 16 1025'0 1038'2 1018'2 1029'6 2'2 1029'6s 04/29 Chart for @S6N Options for @S6N
Aug 16 1025'4 1039'0 1019'6 1030'2 2'0 1030'4s 04/29 Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
Sep 16 1016'2 1025'0 1008'4 1016'6 0'6 1017'2s 04/29 Chart for @S6U Options for @S6U
Nov 16 1007'0 1016'0 1000'4 1007'6 -0'6 1007'6s 04/29 Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
Jan 17 1006'2 1016'4 1002'4 1008'0 -0'4 1009'0s 04/29 Chart for @S7F Options for @S7F
Mar 17 1001'4 1009'4 995'4 1000'6 -1'6 1001'4s 04/29 Chart for @S7H Options for @S7H
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 16 114.275 116.400 114.075 114.800 0.125 114.925s 04/29 Chart for @LE6M Options for @LE6M
Aug 16 111.400 113.775 111.275 112.425 0.675 112.425s 04/29 Chart for @LE6Q Options for @LE6Q
Oct 16 111.325 113.425 111.175 112.400 0.750 112.325s 04/29 Chart for @LE6V Options for @LE6V
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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Trump,Clinton Argue Politics of Gender 04/30 11:15
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SCOTUS Still Trying to Find Its Way 04/30 11:21
China: Conditions for Better Japan Ties04/30 11:14
Berkshire Hathaway Holds Annual Event 04/30 11:17
Stocks Close Slightly Lower 04/29 15:49

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Rosalia, WA
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Rosalia, WA
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